Bitcoin is on track for its fifth positive September close in its history.
Despite a recent 2% drop and loss of around US$1.5K, optimism remains for an upward adjustment.
Following historical patterns, a green September often precedes a bullish October.
Analysts, noting significant stablecoin inflows and Chinese mining outputs, predict a major Q4 rally.
Bitcoin is on track to close September in the green, which would be only the fifth time since its existence to do so. While data from Coinglass has the current returns at the highest with around 11%, this omits September 2012 when BTC saw gains of 15.13%.
However, at the time of writing, BTC dropped around 2% and has lost just about US$1.5K (AU$2.16K), so we may still see an adjustment to September figures.
Related: Bitget Analyst Predicts XRP Rally in October, Says 30% a Possibility
FOMO is Back, Time to Ride the ‘Next Wave’?
Historically these green September months are often followed by even greener months, like the much-anticipated Uptober.
Analyst at x10 research, Markus Thielen, wrote in his latest report that we might soon see the green pastures of Uptober again.
In the report named “FOMO is Back: Are You Holding Enough Bitcoin and Altcoins to Ride the Next Wave?” Thielen says the firm expects a “swift move toward $70,000, followed by new all-time highs in the near term”.
Thielen observed a significant rise in stablecoin minting, nearly US$10 billion (AU$14.4 billion), following the Federal Reserve’s decision in July to leave interest rates unchanged. He believes the subsequent rate hike in September may lead to a fee resurgence.
This influx of stablecoins, particularly Circle’s USDC, which unusually accounted for 40% of the inflows, significantly increased liquidity in the crypto markets.
Thielen: Major Surge on Horizon
Additionally, Thielen noted that while USDT minting on TRON generally signifies capital preservation, USDC minting suggests increased activity in DeFi.
Related: Are FTX Repayments Starting? Here’s What You Need to Know
He also pointed out that 55% of newly mined Bitcoins are from Chinese mining pools, suggesting that recent substantial monetary and fiscal stimulus measures in China could drive significant capital flows into cryptocurrencies.
The likelihood of a Q4 rally is exceptionally high, with gains likely front-loaded. A major surge could be on the horizon, sparking even more FOMO across the crypto space.
Markus Thielen
However, it’s a good idea to keep in mind that markets often move in directions contrary to pundits’ expectations.
As Santiment analysts remind us here, there are almost twice as many bullish posts as bearish posts:
📊 If you’re awaiting Bitcoin’s new all-time high, it may need to wait until the crowd slows down their own expectations. There are currently 1.8 bullish posts toward BTC for every 1 bearish post. Markets historically always move the opposite direction of crowd’s expectations. pic.twitter.com/ZxDxalgmzb
— Santiment (@santimentfeed) September 29, 2024